Bonds experienced a bit of weakness today, but 10yr yields bounced almost perfectly at the range ceiling of .96%.  That means they made it all the way from November through today in essentially the same narrow range.  All the while the biggest potential driver of a breakout has been the election results due out tonight.  That means tomorrow could be a very big day, for better or worse.  Granted, these sorts of big ticket market movers don't always live up to the hype, but all we can ever really know in advance is that some events have a lot more potential than others to move markets.  This is one of those!

Econ Data / Events

  • 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying 10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th)

  • ISM Manufacturing 60.7 vs 56.6 f'cast, 57.5 prev

  • ISM Prices Paid 77.6 vs 65.7 f'cast, 65.4 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:37 AM

Slightly weaker overnight with most of the movement seen in the European session.  Ranges persist.  10yr yr up only 1.2bps and MBS just a hair weaker with 1.5 coupons still trading over 101.  All eyes remain focused on Georgia senate outcome.

10:08 AM

Noticeable, moderate weakness following stronger ISM Manufacturing data.  10yr up 3.2bps at .95% and 1.5 UMBS down 5 ticks (.19) at 100-29 (100.91).

03:43 PM

Bonds have recovered a bit from AM weakness with 10yr yields moving roughly 1.5bps lower from the highs (currently .947%).  MBS are still down more than an eighth of a point, but they had been down a quarter of a point about an hour ago.